Tariff Impact Simulator: Model Section 301, 232, and 122 Scenarios for Your Product Catalog

Section 301 tariffs on China at 25%. Section 232 doubled to 50% on steel and aluminum. SCOTUS struck down IEEPA tariffs. A new Section 122 global tariff proposed at 10%. Every week, clients are calling their brokers asking the same question: "What does this mean for my costs?" The Tariff Impact Simulator gives you the answer in minutes.

Why Brokers Need Tariff Simulation

The tariff environment in 2026 is the most volatile in modern trade history. In the span of five days in February, importers saw IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, a replacement Section 122 surcharge imposed within hours, and social media posts suggesting a rate increase before the ink was dry on the executive order.

Customs brokers are the front line of this chaos. Clients need answers about how proposed and enacted tariff changes affect their product catalogs — not in aggregate, but product by product, with dollar amounts. Manually modeling these scenarios across a client's full catalog is a spreadsheet exercise that takes days and becomes obsolete the moment the next executive order drops.

The Tariff Impact Simulator automates this analysis. Upload a product catalog, select a tariff scenario, and get a per-product breakdown of current vs. projected duties in minutes.

How the Simulator Works

The workflow is straightforward:

1. Upload your CSV — A file containing your client's product catalog with HTS codes, origin countries, and declared values
2. Select a scenario — Choose from four built-in tariff scenarios or create a custom one
3. Run the simulation — The engine calculates current duties using live HTSUS rates and overlays the selected scenario to project new duties
4. Review results — Per-product breakdown with current duty, projected duty, and the delta between them

The simulator uses live duty rates from the HTSUS, including General, Special, and Column 2 rates. It accounts for existing trade program eligibility (GSP, USMCA, CAFTA-DR) and layers the selected scenario on top.

Built-In Scenarios

1. Remove Section 301 (China 25%)

Models the impact of removing Section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports. Applicable to products covered under Lists 1-4A of the Section 301 action. Shows the duty reduction for each affected product if the 25% additional tariff were lifted.

Use case: Clients asking "How much would we save if Section 301 goes away?" — a question that comes up every time trade negotiations make headlines.

2. Section 232 at 50% (Steel Ch 72-73, Aluminum Ch 76)

Models the impact of the doubled Section 232 tariff rate on steel (HTS Chapters 72-73) and aluminum (HTS Chapter 76) products. The rate increase from 25% to 50% took effect in early 2025, but many importers are still quantifying the full-year impact on their supply chains.

Use case: Manufacturing clients with significant steel or aluminum inputs who need budget projections that reflect the higher rate.

3. Section 122 Global Tariff (10% on All Imports)

Models the universal 10% surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Accounts for the key exemptions: USMCA-qualifying goods, products already subject to Section 232, and Annex II exclusions (pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper, critical minerals, energy products, lumber, and civil aircraft articles).

Use case: Giving clients an immediate answer on their total exposure to the Section 122 surcharge, with exemption-eligible products clearly flagged.

4. USMCA Preferential Rates (Duty-Free for Canada/Mexico)

Models the duty savings available for products originating in Canada or Mexico that qualify for USMCA preferential treatment. Shows the difference between General duty rates and USMCA duty-free treatment for eligible products.

Use case: Identifying which products in a client's catalog would benefit most from USMCA qualification — prioritizing the origin determination and certification effort where it has the highest dollar impact.

Reading Your Results

The simulator output includes three levels of analysis:

• Portfolio summary: Total current duty vs. total projected duty across all products in the catalog. The aggregate delta tells you the overall financial impact of the scenario
• Per-product breakdown: Each product listed with its HTS code, origin country, declared value, current duty, projected duty, and the delta. Color-coded to highlight increases (red), decreases (green), and unchanged (neutral)
• Top 5 highest-impact products: Automatically identifies the five products with the largest absolute duty change under the selected scenario. These are the products that warrant immediate attention

Results can be exported as a CSV for integration into client reports, internal tracking, or further analysis.

Use Cases for Customs Brokers

Client Advisory

When a tariff change is announced, run the affected client's catalog through the relevant scenario and send a proactive advisory: "Based on the Section 122 surcharge, your projected annual duty increase is $X. Three of your products qualify for USMCA exemption, which would reduce that to $Y." This is the kind of analysis that differentiates a strategic brokerage from a transactional one.

Budget Forecasting

Import managers need duty projections for annual budgets. Running multiple scenarios gives them a range: best case (Section 301 removed), worst case (Section 122 at 15%), and baseline (current rates). Finance teams can plan around a realistic range instead of a single guess.

Sourcing Decisions

When a client is evaluating whether to shift production from China to Vietnam or Mexico, the simulator quantifies the duty impact of each sourcing option. Change the origin country in the CSV, re-run the simulation, and compare the results side by side.

USMCA Qualification Review

The USMCA scenario identifies which products would benefit most from qualifying for preferential treatment. This helps brokers and importers prioritize where to invest in origin documentation, supplier certification, and rules of origin analysis.

CSV Format

The simulator accepts a standard CSV file with the following columns:

• hts_code (required) — The 8 or 10-digit HTS code for the product
• origin_country (required) — Two-letter ISO country code (e.g., CN, MX, CA, DE)
• declared_value (required) — Declared customs value in USD
• description (optional) — Product description for easier identification in results
• sku (optional) — Internal SKU or part number for cross-referencing

Maximum catalog size is 500 products per simulation. For larger catalogs, split the file and run multiple simulations. Processing time is typically under 30 seconds for a full 500-product catalog.

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This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or customs brokerage advice. Importers and brokers should consult with a licensed customs broker or trade attorney for guidance on specific classification and compliance decisions. Harmonize.ai is a classification research tool operating under 19 U.S.C. § 1641 — we provide research support, not customs brokerage services.